Como casi ninguna otra variable económica, la balanza comercial tuvo dos historias durante 2018.
Una antes de los vaivenes cambiarios, y una después. Luego de la fuerte depreciación de fines de abril, las importaciones dejaron de llevarle una fuerte ventaja a las exportaciones, con lo que la brecha entre ambas se redujo: el déficit comercial durante 2018 fue 3.820 millones de dólares.
Ese dato se compuso por un repunte en las exportaciones, producto de un mayor crecimiento en exportaciones.
La suba en envíos al exterior por 5,1% respecto del 2017 causó que el año pasado fuera el tercer período consecutivo en el que las exportaciones aumentaron respecto del período anterior.
El incremento es importante cuando se toma en cuenta que las subas anteriores fueron más acotadas (1,9% para 2016 y 1,3% para 2017).
Nota relacionada: LAS EXPORTACIONES DE TRIGO A BRASIL ALCANZARON EL MAYOR VOLUMEN DE LOS ÚLTIMOS 12 AÑOS
Las exportaciones venían creciendo a una tasa del 12% interanual en el primer cuatrimestre del año, pero eso se derrumbó a partir de abril como consecuencia de la peor sequía en los últimos 50 años.
A partir de ese momento cayeron abruptamente las exportaciones de soja y sus derivados, que explican un 60% de las ventas argentin
La cifra de superávit representa un retroceso del 54% respecto del año anterior.
De cara al 2019, se espera que la balanza comercial tienda más hacia el superávit, luego de que el tipo de cambio se ubicara en un nivel considerado más competitivo para los sectores exportadores, en combinación con una fuerte cosecha del agro y un mejora en el balance energético producto del desarrollo de Vaca Muerta.
En diciembre puntualmente, el superávit fue de USD 1.369 millones. En ese sentido, las exportaciones mostraron un crecimiento del 15% respecto del mismo mes del año pasado a USD 5.282 millones, mientras que las importaciones siguieron su trayectoria de recorte con un descenso del 2,2% respecto de diciembre de 2017, a USD 3.919 millones para cerrar el año.
En el balance anual, el impacto cambiario fue más fuerte en el rubro de bienes de capitales, en el cual los insumos importados son necesarios para la producción y el encarecimiento de esos insumos llevó a una caída en la demanda. Respecto del año pasado, los bienes de capitales cayeron un 17,9 por ciento.
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