En sintonía con el informe publicado por el Banco Mundial el pasado 8 de enero, el Fondo Monetario Internacional actualizó un estudio donde estima que la economía argentina profundizaría su recesión este 2019, retrayéndose en un 1,7%.
El organismo financiero publicó una actualización del informe “Perspectivas de la economía mundial” donde aborda entre otros, los casos de la economía nacional y regional.
La caída del PBI se contrapone a las estimaciones oficiales.
Según lo dispuesto por el Presupuesto 2019, prevé entre otros puntos, una caída del 0,5% del producto, en adición a la aspiración de reducir el déficit primario a cero y una inflación proyectada en el 23% anual.
Para América Latina, la organización recortó sus previsiones para este año y el próximo en 0,2 puntos con relación a lo previsto en octubre: 2% en 2019 y 2,5% en 2020.
En cuanto a la retracción del crecimiento global, se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial disminuya a 3,5% en 2019, para repuntar ligeramente a 3,6% en 2020 (0,2 % y 0,1%, respectivamente, por debajo de lo previsto en el informe anterior).
Esta tendencia a la disminución del crecimiento global responde a una reducción sostenida de la tasa de crecimiento de las economías avanzadas y a una desaceleración temporal de las economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo en 2019, debido a contracciones en Argentina y Turquía así como al impacto de las medidas comerciales en China y otras economías asiáticas.
La economía argentina se contraerá en 2019 a medida que las políticas más restrictivas con las que se busca reducir los desequilibrios frenen la demanda interna, profundizando así la caída del consumo.
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